# Starbucks Promotions Project ### This project is the Capstone Project of Udacity's Machine Learning Engineering Nanodegree program.    ## Problem Statement This data set contains simulated data that mimics customer behavior on the Starbucks rewards mobile app. Once every few days, Starbucks sends out an offer to users of the mobile app. An offer can be merely an advertisement for a drink or an actual offer such as a discount or BOGO (buy one get one free). Some users might not receive any offer during certain weeks. Not all users receive the same offer, and that is the challenge to solve with this data set. The task is to combine transaction, demographic and offer data to determine which demographic groups respond best to which offer type. This data set is a simplified version of the real Starbucks app because the underlying simulator only has one product whereas Starbucks actually sells dozens of products. Starbucks collects the customer data to understand their behaviour on the rewards and offers sent via the mobile-app. Once every few days, Starbucks sends the personalised offers to its customers. These customers can respond positively/negatively/neutrally. A key thing to note is that not all the customers receive the same offer. The task of this project is to combine transaction, demographic and offer data of the past (which is already provided) to determine which demographic groups respond best to which offer types. In order to develop this project, we needed to use some tools, packages, systems and services that could help us achieve our goals. #### Libraries First of all, we used **Python** to write our scripts not only for algorithm training and serving but also for the orchestration of the whole process. Important packages within this environment are listed below: This project is developed in Python 3.6. You will need install some libraries in order to run the code. Libraries are: * `pandas` so we could work with tabular data in dataframes; * `Ploty` so we could visualize our Dataset; * `matplotlib` for Dataset visualization; * `numpy` so we could easily manipulate arrays and data structures; * `seaborn` and `matplotlib` so we could generate insightful visualizations; * `sklearn` so we could build and develop our model pipeline; * `imblearn` so we could apply SMOTE to our training data; * `xgboost` so we could have our main classifier; * `sagemaker` so we could easily interact with AWS. * `json` for reading our Dataset Files. * `boto3` Finally, we used AWS environment in order to launch training jobs, deploy our model and serve predictions. The main services used are also listed below: * __AWS SageMaker__: training, hyperparameter tuning and endpoint serving; * __Amazon S3__: saving our data and model artifacts; ## Files Descriptions This project is structured as follows: #### 01. Proposal Project proposal documentation. #### 02. Data_Cleaning_[Dataset] Folder to perform data preparation and Dataset Cleaning and Prepare the Final Data for Further using in model algorithms. #### 03. Pre-processing Dataset Visualization Folder to perform final Pre-processing Dataset to be used in Visualization and exploration. #### 04. Dataset_Visualization Folder to perform Visualizations for the Pre-processed Dataset. #### 06. ORG_Starbucks_Capstone_Project.ipynb Jupyter notebook file that deploy final model and create an endpoint and orchestrates the end-to-end process in AWS SageMaker and also interacts with other services.

This project was developed for SIH 2020 Internal. Problem statement was provided by ISRO. All the datasets used are open source and freely available on the internet. Primary technology used to develop this project are Python, Machine Learning and Jupyter Notebook

This repository contains the Python codes for simple problem statements. These code are beneficial for those who wants to learn Python by actually coding. For better comprehension, the details of each line of code is also shared in the jupyter notebooks

# Forecasting Stock Market Prices It is a **Time Series** dataset.A time series is simply a series of data points ordered in time.In a time series, time is often the independent variable and the goal is usually to make a forecast for the future. ## PROBLEM STATEMENT: Our Aim is to create a model that can forecast the future stock price based on the model training and provided dataset. ### Data We will be using a [Huge stock market dataset](https://www.kaggle.com/borismarjanovic/price-volume-data-for-all-us-stocks-etfs) from the Kaggle platform which has a very good collection of datasets.The file we will be using is present in following directory in the dataset zip file input\Data\Stocks\gs.us.txt The data is presented in CSV format as follows : Date, Open, High, Low, Close, Volume, OpenInt. Features: - Date - Open - High - Low - Close - Volume - OpenInt Note that prices have been adjusted for dividends and splits. ### LICENSE OF DATASET : [LICENSE](https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) ### Requirements You will also need to have software installed to run and execute a [Jupyter Notebook](http://ipython.org/notebook.html) If you do not have Python installed yet, it is highly recommended that you install the [Anaconda](http://continuum.io/downloads) distribution of Python, which already has the above packages and more included. This project requires **Python** and the following Python libraries installed: - [NumPy](http://www.numpy.org/) - [Pandas](http://pandas.pydata.org/) - [matplotlib](http://matplotlib.org/) - [scikit-learn](http://scikit-learn.org/stable/) - [statsmodels](https://www.statsmodels.org/stable/) ### Run In a terminal or command window, navigate to the top-level project directory `STOCK MARKET FORECASTING/` (that contains this README) and run one of the following commands: ipython notebook Forecasting_Stock_Market_Prices_task.ipynb or jupyter notebook Forecasting_Stock_Market_Prices_task.ipynb This will open the Jupyter Notebook software and project file in your browser. ### Steps : 1. Importing Libraries 2. Exploring the Dataset 3. Exploratory Data Analysis > * Univariate Analysis 4. Data Preprocessing 5. Model Building > * AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL > * MOVING AVERAGE MODEL 6. Evaluation > * MEAN SQUARE ERROR > * MEAN ABSOLUTE ERROR > * ROOT MEAN SQUARE ERROR 7. Conclusion

Problem Statement This assignment is a programming assignment wherein you have to build a multiple linear regression model for the prediction of demand for shared bikes. You will need to submit a Jupyter notebook for the same. Problem Statement A bike-sharing system is a service in which bikes are made available for shared use to individuals on a short term basis for a price or free. Many bike share systems allow people to borrow a bike from a "dock" which is usually computer-controlled wherein the user enters the payment information, and the system unlocks it. This bike can then be returned to another dock belonging to the same system. A US bike-sharing provider BoomBikes has recently suffered considerable dips in their revenues due to the ongoing Corona pandemic. The company is finding it very difficult to sustain in the current market scenario. So, it has decided to come up with a mindful business plan to be able to accelerate its revenue as soon as the ongoing lockdown comes to an end, and the economy restores to a healthy state. In such an attempt, BoomBikes aspires to understand the demand for shared bikes among the people after this ongoing quarantine situation ends across the nation due to Covid-19. They have planned this to prepare themselves to cater to the people's needs once the situation gets better all around and stand out from other service providers and make huge profits. They have contracted a consulting company to understand the factors on which the demand for these shared bikes depends. Specifically, they want to understand the factors affecting the demand for these shared bikes in the American market. The company wants to know: Which variables are significant in predicting the demand for shared bikes. How well those variables describe the bike demands Based on various meteorological surveys and people's styles, the service provider firm has gathered a large dataset on daily bike demands across the American market based on some factors. Business Goal: You are required to model the demand for shared bikes with the available independent variables. It will be used by the management to understand how exactly the demands vary with different features. They can accordingly manipulate the business strategy to meet the demand levels and meet the customer's expectations. Further, the model will be a good way for management to understand the demand dynamics of a new market. Data Preparation: You can observe in the dataset that some of the variables like 'weathersit' and 'season' have values as 1, 2, 3, 4 which have specific labels associated with them (as can be seen in the data dictionary). These numeric values associated with the labels may indicate that there is some order to them - which is actually not the case (Check the data dictionary and think why). So, it is advisable to convert such feature values into categorical string values before proceeding with model building. Please refer the data dictionary to get a better understanding of all the independent variables. You might notice the column 'yr' with two values 0 and 1 indicating the years 2018 and 2019 respectively. At the first instinct, you might think it is a good idea to drop this column as it only has two values so it might not be a value-add to the model. But in reality, since these bike-sharing systems are slowly gaining popularity, the demand for these bikes is increasing every year proving that the column 'yr' might be a good variable for prediction. So think twice before dropping it. Model Building In the dataset provided, you will notice that there are three columns named 'casual', 'registered', and 'cnt'. The variable 'casual' indicates the number casual users who have made a rental. The variable 'registered' on the other hand shows the total number of registered users who have made a booking on a given day. Finally, the 'cnt' variable indicates the total number of bike rentals, including both casual and registered. The model should be built taking this 'cnt' as the target variable. Model Evaluation: When you're done with model building and residual analysis and have made predictions on the test set, just make sure you use the following two lines of code to calculate the R-squared score on the test set. from sklearn.metrics import r2_score r2_score(y_test, y_pred) where y_test is the test data set for the target variable, and y_pred is the variable containing the predicted values of the target variable on the test set. Please don't forget to perform this step as the R-squared score on the test set holds some marks. The variable names inside the 'r2_score' function can be different based on the variable names you have chosen. Downloads: You can download the dataset file from the link given below: Bike Sharing Dataset Download Assignment - Data Dictionary Download Submissions Expected: Python Notebook: One Python notebook with the whole linear model, predictions, and evaluation. Subjective Questions PDF: Apart from the Python notebook, you also need to answer some subjective questions related to linear regression which can be downloaded from the file below. Answer these questions and submit it as a PDF. Note: There are some questions in the subjective questions doc that you might not be familiar with. So you're expected to research these questions and give an appropriate answer in order to expand your learnings of this topic.

This assignment is a programming assignment wherein you have to build a multiple linear regression model for the prediction of demand for shared bikes. You will need to submit a Jupyter notebook for the same. Problem Statement A bike-sharing system is a service in which bikes are made available for shared use to individuals on a short term basis for a price or free. Many bike share systems allow people to borrow a bike from a "dock" which is usually computer-controlled wherein the user enters the payment information, and the system unlocks it. This bike can then be returned to another dock belonging to the same system. A US bike-sharing provider BoomBikes has recently suffered considerable dips in their revenues due to the ongoing Corona pandemic. The company is finding it very difficult to sustain in the current market scenario. So, it has decided to come up with a mindful business plan to be able to accelerate its revenue as soon as the ongoing lockdown comes to an end, and the economy restores to a healthy state. In such an attempt, BoomBikes aspires to understand the demand for shared bikes among the people after this ongoing quarantine situation ends across the nation due to Covid-19. They have planned this to prepare themselves to cater to the people's needs once the situation gets better all around and stand out from other service providers and make huge profits. They have contracted a consulting company to understand the factors on which the demand for these shared bikes depends. Specifically, they want to understand the factors affecting the demand for these shared bikes in the American market. The company wants to know: Which variables are significant in predicting the demand for shared bikes. How well those variables describe the bike demands Based on various meteorological surveys and people's styles, the service provider firm has gathered a large dataset on daily bike demands across the American market based on some factors. Business Goal: You are required to model the demand for shared bikes with the available independent variables. It will be used by the management to understand how exactly the demands vary with different features. They can accordingly manipulate the business strategy to meet the demand levels and meet the customer's expectations. Further, the model will be a good way for management to understand the demand dynamics of a new market. Data Preparation: You can observe in the dataset that some of the variables like 'weathersit' and 'season' have values as 1, 2, 3, 4 which have specific labels associated with them (as can be seen in the data dictionary). These numeric values associated with the labels may indicate that there is some order to them - which is actually not the case (Check the data dictionary and think why). So, it is advisable to convert such feature values into categorical string values before proceeding with model building. Please refer the data dictionary to get a better understanding of all the independent variables. You might notice the column 'yr' with two values 0 and 1 indicating the years 2018 and 2019 respectively. At the first instinct, you might think it is a good idea to drop this column as it only has two values so it might not be a value-add to the model. But in reality, since these bike-sharing systems are slowly gaining popularity, the demand for these bikes is increasing every year proving that the column 'yr' might be a good variable for prediction. So think twice before dropping it. Model Building In the dataset provided, you will notice that there are three columns named 'casual', 'registered', and 'cnt'. The variable 'casual' indicates the number casual users who have made a rental. The variable 'registered' on the other hand shows the total number of registered users who have made a booking on a given day. Finally, the 'cnt' variable indicates the total number of bike rentals, including both casual and registered. The model should be built taking this 'cnt' as the target variable. Model Evaluation: When you're done with model building and residual analysis and have made predictions on the test set, just make sure you use the following two lines of code to calculate the R-squared score on the test set. from sklearn.metrics import r2_score r2_score(y_test, y_pred) where y_test is the test data set for the target variable, and y_pred is the variable containing the predicted values of the target variable on the test set. Please don't forget to perform this step as the R-squared score on the test set holds some marks. The variable names inside the 'r2_score' function can be different based on the variable names you have chosen.